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  • TheBettingGuy – Betting Expert or Entertainer?

    Podcasts are growing in popularity. People can instantly listen to their favorite shows at the convenience of their own schedule. For those who are not familiar with this form of digital audio, simply look at it as radio on demand. In this article, I would like to introduce a new phenomenon in the Football Betting Podcast community. A rising star who has built a wide audience (referred to as the “Betting Nation”) with 20.000 downloads a month. Lately, prominent guests out of the betting industry are invited on the podcast, making it one of the most interesting programs about football betting and trading. The person in charge is Dean Booty, alias TheBettingGuy. You can find him on Twitter (@DeanBettingGuy ) or at his website (https://thebettingguy.co.uk). I am following TheBettingGuy for a while now. I simply LOVE his podcasts. He is an amazing character, telling the most entertaining stories about his past life as a bookmaker, his family (the Misses, and his two little terrors, as he usually refers to his wife Claire and his lovely two boys, Zak and Kay), and the current self-storage business he is running in Beverly, Great Britain. Dean is fascinated with football and horseracing. He does a tremendous effort in pre-match and pre-race analysis to make up his mind, before conveying his advice to the Betting Nation to place a bet. In the whole process, he is genuinely honest, transparent and that makes him far more than a mere tipster. However, the inevitable question comes to mind. How good is TheBettingGuy in terms of his predictions? On an important note, the figures presented in this article only take his last 100 Premier League (season 2017-2018) bets into account.   Dean’s edge comes with his knowledge of the Premier League and the significant effort he puts in pre-match analyses. He works with a point system (with a stake £50/point), reflecting his confidence in a certain outcome of a match. There is no money management system known. The following graph shows the usage of points. The average is around 4.5pt/match. In total, Dean spent 451 points over his last 100 bets. The next table shows the Top 5 betting markets Dean uses for his bets. A betting market is any specific category within a sporting event that a customer can place a bet on.   Now the key question:

    Is TheBettingGuy profitable?

      Let’s have a look at his equity curve. An equity curve is the graphical representation of the change in the value of a trading account over a certain period of time, in this case 100 bets.

    Conclusion

    Betting Nation, I have AWESOME news for you. Dean, alias TheBettingGuy is a betting expert! He made 28 points profit with an initial investment of 451 points. A Return on Investment (ROI) of 6%. The equity curve shows a slow start in the first 40 bets, then it takes a steep slope up, stabilizes, going up again and finally it makes a steep curve downwards. The root-cause of the last downward curve is directly connected to the bad performance of his last two Premier League rounds. There were some unexpected results, against all statistics in the league. (Taken the last two rounds out of the equation, the Return on Investment would be 18%.   Some betting advice for Dean There are a few major contributors to his losses. Big bleeders are the Away to Win (64% loss), Win to Nil (4 losses, and only 1 win) and Under 2.5 goals (3 losses, no wins) responsible for a loss of 64 points in total. If TheBettingGuy stops betting on Win to Nil and Under 2.5 goals, while making a selection improvement on the Away to Win market, he will be able to boost his profits with approx. 10%.   Dean, I hope you are happy with the results; I am looking forward to the 2018-2019 EPL season of TheBettingGuy!
  • EPL – Issue 1 – A Bird’s-Eye View

    In the first issue of the series, we look at the Home Win, the Draw and the Away Win statistics in the English Premier League. The last 4 seasons are analyzed, as shown in the table below. As expected, there is a clear Home team advantage, probably caused by the social atmosphere in the stadiums, especially true for the Premier League as many stadiums have no running track surrounding the pitch.   The Top 5 WIN distribution:   The Top 5 DRAW distribution: Interesting to see that Liverpool goes into the lead for Home Draws. Also remarkable is that Manchester United is on the fifth place for a draw on their travels. West Brom and West Ham almost draw one third of their 152 matches in the last 4 seasons. The next analysis clusters the teams in a Top 6, a Middle 8 and a Bottom 6. As a reference, the standings at the end of each season are taken. Teams clustered per season:   Calculation of all the matches between the Top, Middle and Bottom ranked teams leads to the following overview:   There are a couple of interesting observations:
    1. Top teams win more often from Middle ranked teams than then they claim victory against Bottom ranked teams.
    2. Middle ranked teams almost Draw as often against Middle ranked teams as they do against Bottom ranked teams.
    3. Middle ranked teams win at Home as often as Top ranked teams from the Bottom 6 of the table.
     

    Conclusion

    It is too early to draw a definite conclusion, although it is clear that the Top 6 struggles to win from the Bottom 6 compared to the Middle 6. Odds will be higher for the Bottom 6, so there may be an edge to look for. Some examples: Season 2015-2016      Manchester United – Norwich 1-2 Season 2016-2017      Liverpool – Swansea 2-3 Season 2016-2017      Arsenal – Watford 1-2 Season 2016-2017      Manchester United – Hull 0-0 Season 2017-2018      Tottenham – Swansea 0-0 Season 2017-2018      Chelsea – Huddersfield 0-0   Another interesting angle is that Middle ranked home teams win from the Bottom 6 as much as the Top ranked teams do. From an odds perspective, Middle ranked teams are priced higher, and although it cannot be defined as an ‘edge’, for sure it can be profitable for any form of accumulator (e.g. treble).   There are many more angles to take. Football Edge Finder is an expert tool to walk down several alleys in order to find value.  

    We are ready to explore and WIN!

     
  • Big in Japan

    Super Sunday in the land of the rising sun. Our Football Edge Finder shows a treble opportunity in today’s J-League schedule. First of all we have Sapporo playing at home against Kashiwa Reysol. The hosts are 4rd on the ranking list, climbing up from a weak start. They have won all their 6 games against the bottom 5 teams. The visitors have been tumbling down the ranking list with 4 losses in a row. From this perspective this clash is the 1st match of our treble. The second match is found in Nagoya, where Nagoya Grampus Eight will fight Gamba Osaka. What counts in this match is home advantage, where the hosts kept the league leaders to a scoreless draw. That taken into account, and their latest away victory against V. Sendai, plus the fact that G-Osaka has lost 7 out of their 9 matches on the road, makes this the second match in the treble. Finally, we add a BTTS prediction. Vegalta Sendai found the net in 7 out of their 9 away matches. They are up against Iwata, who are scoring 6 out of 7 games against middle and bottom teams.     Treble (odds 11.67) Sapporo – Kashiwa Reysol (Home Win at 2.25) Nagoya Grampus Eight – Gamba Osaka (HomeWin at 2.85) Vegalta Sendai – Iwata (BTTS at 1.82)
  • Paddy Power Betfair Report a Boost in Second Quarter Sales

    Since the merger of Paddy Power and Betfair the company has gone from strength to strength and this year they are reporting excellent second quarter sales, something the company is attributing to the FIFA World Cup and success in the US market.

    Revenue

    Paddy Power Betfair reported an increase on second-quarter sales by 13% according to an announcement by the operator this week. Review is up 9% year-on-year in the pre-World Cup period and increased by around 20% in Australia and the US, showing the brand’s growth overseas. These revenue increases provided some welcome news after the company reported poor growth in the first quarter of 2018.  

    Overseas Expansion

    Paddy Power Betfair is putting the success down to recent partnerships and expansion thanks to changes in legislation. The brand has just expanded into New Jersey and further changes in legislation will mean new states for Paddy Power Betfair to move into. This week we hear the news that Illinois is to open up the market to online gambling, and this could be another boost for brands such as Paddy Power Betfair. Recent partnerships with brands such as Boyd Gaming have also worked in the brand’s favour, helping to increase revenue and give the company a profit boost. Plus, like other brands on the market right now, the World Cup was a showcase event, giving the company the chance to rise to the challenge of one of the busiest periods of the last four years. Paddy Power Betfair ran several successful campaigns during the World Cup, making the very most of social media conversations around the tournament and this has worked in the brand’s favour also attributing to the excellent second-quarter success of 2018. Source: http://www.jackpot.co.uk/news/paddy-power-betfair-report-boost-second-quarter-sales
  • The Beauty of Doubles

    Doubles are bets consisting of two selections, both of which must win to gain a return. Since the odds are multiplied, it creates the potential for larger profits at the expense of increased risk. On the contrary, one losing selection will ruin the bet.

    I use doubles mainly in the Double Chance and Draw No Bet markets. And only for those matches where Football Edge Finder shows a higher probability of winning than the odds being offered at the bookies or the Exchange. Also here, in essence, it is about judging probabilities more correctly than the market does. The idea of this approach is to rule out the traditional three-way market, covering multiple outcomes of a football match while keeping a positive risk-reward ratio. It will be more profitable than odds-on single bets, because the first wager winning is played into the second selection to give a higher profit. Example: The FIRST leg of the double:  

    IK Start – Strømsgodset

    10 June 2018

      Two bottom ranked teams in a 6-pointer clash. Football Edge Finder gives the following statistics:  

    IK Start

      From a home record perspective, IK Start performed reasonable well. Two narrow losses against Brann and Haugesund (2 top ranked teams), a 1-6 loss against Valerenga HOWEVER, the home team received a red card already the fifth minute of the match, and an unfortunate loss against Sandjeford where IK Start hit 2 times the woodwork.  

    Strømsgodset

      Strømsgodset doesn’t perform too well when travelling. Four losses, a draw and a victory in their first away match of the season.
    The Match Odds: The Double Chance Odds:
      Conclusion: From a statistical perspective, Home or Draw is great value for the first leg in the double.     The SECOND leg of the double:  

    Tromsø – Rosenborg

    11 June 2018

      Tromsø, a middle ranked team with a strong home record playing against Rosenborg, a top ranked team that is kind of struggling on the road.  

    Tromsø

      Tromsø has a strong home record, apart from the loss against Lillestrom they have won 5 and played one draw. Next to that they scored 15 goals, and conceded only 4 goals  

    Rosenborg

      Rosenborg’s away record shows one loss, one draw and 4 wins, however these wins were very close (3x 0-1, and 1x 1-2). They have scored 6 goals away from home and conceded 3 goals.  
    The Match Odds: The Double Chance Odds:
      Conclusion: Given Football Edge Finder’s statistics, it looks good value to back a home win or draw. So now are ready for the double.  

    1.95

    x

    1.83

    IK Start – Strømsgodset

    Tromsø – Rosenborg

    Odds = 3.56

     

      The Nettavisen Sport reported:   Kjetil Rekdal fikk med seg ett poeng i debuten som Start-trener, men han er klar på at søndagens motstander er langt bedre enn hva tabellposisjonen tilsier START – GODSET 1-1   Hjemmelaget Tromsø overrasket og vant fortjent hjemme mot Rosenborg TROMSØ – ROSENBORG 2-1     Football Edge Finder spotted a winner. Where each of the bets separately had a low risk-reward ratio, the double boosted the odds to a tasty 3.56, meaning a €10 bet will deliver a €25.60 profit. There is no need to place Doubles with a bookmaker. Just make sure the selected matches do not overlap in date and time, so the selection can be placed at the Exchange one after the other. Another advantage is the possibility to manage liabilities, especially if the intended result looks to swinging away from your control. On a last note, in case a bookmaker is used and one of the matches ends in a draw, the particular selection will be a void and the initial stake moves to the remaining selection as a single bet.