The Both Teams To Score Betting Model

General Info

Both Teams to Score, often abbreviated to BTTS or GG (Goal-Goal), is unique to football where you bet on whether both teams in a match will score or not.

Regardless of who wins, a BTTS bet will come in if both teams get on the scoresheet before the final whistle.

A large sample size from all major European leagues shows 50/50 chances for both teams to score, however it is much more than just the flip of a coin. Outcomes are dependent on the two teams playing, how they play, their previous results and even when the game is taking place.

The best teams to look at are the ones with decent attacks and poor defenses, although the market will heavily adapt their prices. BTTS odds vary from 1.4 to 2.3.

In play, as long as both to teams do not score the BTTS price will increase. Half Time prices are usually in the odds range of 3-5, depending on the activity in the match.

A quick check over the last 4 English Premier League seasons shows that the BTTS spread is almost perfectly evenly balanced.

However, in case teams are clustered in Top 6, Middle 8 and Bottom 6, a pattern comes to surface.

 

Obviously, Top teams playing at home against Bottom ranked teams will show a lower BTTS percentage. Interesting enough, Top teams against Top teams have the highest percentage of BTTS, followed by Bottom home teams versus Middle ranked teams.

 

Match Selection

The key question when betting on Both Teams To Score is “What kind of teams should be chosen and which matches to avoid?“

In front of their own fans home teams are incentivized to perform at their best, at least to score a goal. Recommendable choices are matches in which the away team is slightly stronger.

In case of a 0-0 draw history for either of the teams, it’s better to avoid to place a BTTS bet.

A good habit is to have a keen eye for the team news, placing bets as close to kick off as possible. If a star striker is injured or suspended the chances of that team scoring obviously drop. An example is Jamie Vardy, solely responsible for scoring around 30% of Leicester’s goals in the Premier League (season 2015-2016, 2016-2017, 2017-2018).

Early kickoffs can often be dull and uninspiring for fans and players. On the other hand, televised games are a huge opportunity to outshine ones abilities, including scoring goals.

A derby could be an interesting clash as rival teams lock horns. Both teams do not want to lose. If history shows goals on the scoresheet, even stalemate (1-1) draws, then these matches are worthwhile investigating. Weaker teams, when playing at home, tend to perform above their usual form.

Half way through the season, if the reverse fixture had both teams scoring, statistically there is a 3 percent higher chance that it happens again.

Accumulators from trusted punters are another source to dig into. Nobody wants to lose a leg in a treble or x-fold, so a BTTS match is usually selected carefully. The betting model goes for a 3-5 pts for these selections.

Betting Model

It’s important to distinguish between how teams perform at home versus away. For example, take Athletico Madrid last season (2017-2018) as they conceded only 8 goals in LaLiga at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano.

The key is to find predictive data that has a significant impact on the outcome of the bet. In this betting model match selection is done by taking Spearman’s Both Teams To Score rank correlation (Rs) as the leading Key Indicator.

Note:
The closer Rs is to +1 or -1, the stronger the likely correlation. A perfect positive correlation is +1 and a perfect negative correlation is -1.

Key Indicators

Taken the Spearman correlation into account, the following key indicators are used in the betting model.

Key Indicator %
BTTS Matches >60
Ratio Shots on Target vs Goal scored >30
Ratio Shots against Target vs Goal conceded >35
Scored in Match >80
Conceded in Match >80
Over 2.5 Goals >60

Important to understand is that these numbers are used to create a level of confidence. It’s not the Holy Grail. The final verdict is the sum of these numbers, while taking all the other angles into account.
For example, if a star striker of a bottom ranked team is left out of the squad for any given reason, there will be no BTTS bet, regardless of what the Key Indicators may predict.

 

In-Play

As playing time goes by no goals are scored the odds for BTTS increase. Of course the probability of a BTTS match result will drop. The figure shows the English Premier League BTTS probability on a 10-minute interval.
Be cognizant of the graph, as if there is no goal scored in the first 20 minutes of a match, the BTTS chances drop with 50%.

Bankroll

Money management is arguably the single most important skill required to be a successful sports bettor.

For the BTTS betting model, a point system from 1 to 10 is used, basically staking bets on the level of confidence.

Pts Remarks
1-2 Low confidence, however there is a reasoning that the bet may land. These selections are based on a trusted opinion or an angle that hasn’t been explored.
3-5 Medium confidence, a 50-50 chance according to the stats, and the selection is backed up by a trusted punter, preferably in an accumulator.
6-8 High confidence, the stats give more than 50 percent chance of winning the bet. Points in this range depend on the Spearman’s rank correlation.
9-10 No doubt. The stats give a 80-100 percent chance of winning the bet, also referred to as Banker Bet.

A Last Word

As with all betting, it is essential to not let biases cloud your judgement – particularly in a market like Both Teams To Score where a single bounce of the ball or a questionable refereeing decision can lead to a very fortunate goal (or unfortunate, depending on what your bet is).

You can download the BTTS Betting Sheet in PDF format.